Support Chinese Modernization with High-Quality Population Development

Support Chinese Modernization with High-Quality Population Development*

May 5, 2023

High-quality population development is a concept I have proposed, and a requirement I have stipulated.

1. New Demographic Dynamics in China’s Modernization

China has long been the world’s most populous country, and population trends hold enormous significance for our national rejuvenation. As we embark on a new journey towards a modern socialist country in all respects, we also enter a new phase of demographic change. Due to socio-economic development and changes in age structure, there has been a general shift from population growth to decline, marked by fewer births, an aging population, and a wider demographic divergence across regions. These changes are part of the new circumstances we face in advancing Chinese modernization.

We must form a comprehensive and rational understanding of these new dynamics.

First, we should fully affirm the necessity and effectiveness of the family planning policy. Our huge population is a fundamental national condition. Decades ago, we adopted a policy to promote family planning in accordance with our realities at that particular historical stage. This major decision effectively curbed steep population growth and alleviated the pressure it had caused, providing strong support for reform, opening up, and socialist modernization. Since then, our population growth and demographic structure have evolved. In response to the new changes, the Central Committee has made timely adjustments to the family planning policy based on thorough research since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012. The overall results have been positive, which we must emphatically recognize.

Second, we should adopt a dialectical perspective on the impact of negative population growth. In just a few decades, China has reached a level of industrialization that took developed countries more than a century. The current rapid demographic shifts and an early population decline align with the broader trend of modernization observed worldwide. Population decline has had some negative impacts on development, such as a shrinking workforce and weaker consumption and investment. On the other hand, it has also led to some positive results, such as less pressure on resources and the environment, and a shift in economic development from quantitative expansion to high-quality growth. Population decline, therefore, influences socio-economic development in both beneficial and detrimental ways. We should not focus exclusively on either. Some issues require long-term study, and we should refrain from drawing hasty conclusions. Demographic changes are neither decisive nor insignificant in our development. We should therefore direct our efforts towards harnessing the benefits and mitigating the potential harms of these changes.

Third, we should build a correct understanding of the demographic dividend. The factors affecting the demographic dividend include the size, structure and quality of a population, as well as economic policies, and supporting measures. Despite a modest decline, the Chinese population – including the workforce – remains substantial. As the people’s educational level continues to rise, our country still enjoys a comprehensive demographic dividend. However, we should be aware that China has reached a point of declining birth rate and population aging before realizing modernization, which presents new difficulties and challenges that call for an active response.

2. Basic Approach and Key Principles for Population-Related Work in the New Era

We must follow the guidance of the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully apply the guiding principles of the 20th CPC National Congress, and implement the new development philosophy in full, to the letter, and in all fields. We will improve our population development strategy in line with our strategies to build up national strength and realize national rejuvenation. We should understand, adapt to, and steer the new normal of population dynamics, with emphasis on the overall development of our population. While maintaining an appropriate birth rate and population size, we will accelerate efforts to cultivate a substantial, high-quality modernized workforce that is well-structured and rationally distributed. This is essential to our modernization drive. We must follow these guidelines:

First, we must promote high-quality population development to advance high-quality socio-economic development. At the current critical stage of high-quality development, we must shift our focus from regulating the size of the population to upgrading the quality, stabilizing the size, improving the demographic structure, and maintaining smooth flows. This shift will enable us to cultivate highly competent human resources and accelerate the creation of a new development dynamic, thereby advancing high-quality development.

Second, we should apply systems thinking and adopt a holistic approach to population development. We must have a broader view of this issue, based on thoroughly studying and assessing the complex impact of demographic changes on socio-economic development in the context of Chinese modernization. When formulating socio­economic policies, we should factor in demographic changes and align relevant policies with all others – fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, investment, consumption, eco-environmental, and regional development – to achieve system integration. Demographic security is the bedrock of high-quality population development. The quality of a major country’s population can have ramifications on its rise and fall. Demographic security must, therefore, be planned as part of our national security.

Third, we must promote high-quality population development through reform and innovation. Historically, the government has largely managed population-related work through regulation. As this work expands in breadth and depth, we should move towards more guidance and incentives, transitioning from exclusive management by the government to joint efforts by the government and non-governmental players. By furthering reform in key areas, we will foster a mindset, implement laws and regulations, and establish institutions that are conducive to high-quality population development. We will establish a well-conceived public policy framework regarding population and related areas to provide the people with a stronger sense of gain as they participate in and support this endeavor. At the same time, we must remain cautious and avoid rushing through measures that may provoke controversy.

Fourth, we will continue to promote well-rounded development of the individual and prosperity for all. We must cater to the people’s expectations for a better life and ensure their principal position in our country. The quality of our population development should match with a high quality of life, and our investment in people should match with other kinds of investment. We should do everything within our capacity to establish sound population services that cover the entire life cycle and all demographic groups, and coordinate aspects such as marriage, birth, childcare, education, employment, medical care, housing, and eldercare. These efforts will enable us to advance well-rounded development of the individual and prosperity for all our people.

3. Key Tasks in Promoting High-Quality Population Development in Support of Chinese Modernization

First, we must expand reform and innovation in education and health care, and advance the comprehensive development of our population. We will improve the scientific and cultural literacy of our citizens. We will strengthen education as a strategic project. To improve the quality of education, we should stay attuned to the trends of the sci-tech revolution and industrial transformation across the world, and plan for education in conjunction with sci-tech and talent development. We will make education universally available, and extend the average length of schooling for the workforce. We will optimize the structure of higher education and the configuration of key elements, including study levels, positioning of institutions, disciplines and majors, and talent cultivation models, and accelerate the development of modern vocational education with Chinese characteristics. We will promote lifelong learning for all by taking advantage of digital technologies. We will improve the health of the entire population. We must ensure healthy births and healthy child growth, better management of major chronic diseases to extend healthy life expectancy, the implementation of nationwide fitness initiatives, and the physical and mental health of our youth and teenagers. We will also strengthen the ethical and moral character of our people. We will foster the core socialist values in our people and advocate honesty, hard work and a spirit of enterprise, in order to encourage stronger ethics and civil conduct.

Second, to promote balanced population development in the long term, we will refine our policy system to boost birth rates. We will make childcare services accessible to all, reinforcing support policies and standards, coordinating resources for the care of children aged 0-6, and increasing avenues of financial support and state spending on relevant public services. We will significantly reduce the financial burden of childbirth, childcare and education on families. We will refine the maternity insurance system and expand its coverage. We will ensure that maternity leave provisions are fully implemented, and put in place feasible mechanisms under which childcare costs are shared by the government, employers and families. We will also refine support policies for housing, education and employment. We will build a birth-friendly society. The role of families, family values, and family traditions should be emphasized in order to foster a new culture of marriage and childcare, and wedding customs should be reformed to do away with outdated conventions and practices such as excessive betrothal gifts.

Third, we will increase effective labor supply by better exploring and utilizing human resources. We will ensure a gradual and orderly rise in the statutory retirement age, maintain a stable labor force participation rate, make efficient use of human resources, and promote high-quality and full employment. In particular, we will assist young people in finding jobs or starting businesses. We will do more to protect the rights and interests of people in flexible employment and new forms of employment, and to safeguard women’s birth rights and increase their employment opportunities. We will continue to facilitate urbanization of the rural migrant population, and raise the urbanization rates of permanent and registered urban residents.

Fourth, in response to population aging, we will implement a national strategy to ensure a financially secure, meaningful, and happy life for the elderly. We will continue to develop basic eldercare services by improving the basic service list and establishing a system that combines medical and health care through coordination between families and communities. We will boost the silver economy. We will support the eldercare industry to scale up, standardize its operations, establish clusters, and build brands, with the objective of developing high-end products and high-quality service models. We will consolidate the sustainability of our social security system. We will accelerate the creation of a multitiered and multi-pillar pension system, strengthening the second- and third-pillar pension plans, and improving the mechanisms for financing and adjusting the benefits of basic medical insurance.

Fifth to ensure demographic security, we will better coordinate the relationships between the population and the economy, society, resources, and the environment. We will modernize our industrial system in accordance with demographic changes. Industrial transformation and upgrading should align with consumption upgrading, and infrastructure planning should factor in population peak and shifting distribution. We will improve our regional economic planning and territorial layout. We will align staffing needs, land supply, fiscal transfer payments, and public services with demographic changes to facilitate the orderly flow of people and labor. We will seize the opportunities presented by population decline to step up eco-environmental protection and restoration, and to boost natural regeneration. We will also improve our demographic structure and distribution in the interest of national security.

To ensure the success of population management in the new era, we must uphold overall leadership by the Party. We must also establish mechanisms to lead and coordinate efforts to advance high-quality population development. At the local level, Party and government leaders must be personally engaged in and take overall responsibility for this work, and the results of implementing population policies should be incorporated in their performance assessment. We should strengthen statistical analysis, dynamic monitoring, and early warning of demographic changes, improve the legal framework for ensuring demographic security and sustainable birth rates, and create China’s own demographic theories. We should also raise public awareness, guide public opinion, and foster an enabling social environment for this work.

* Part of the speech at the first meeting of the Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs under the 20th CPC Central Committee.

(Not to be republished for any commercial or other purposes.)