Recent Shifts in the Global Geopolitical Landscape

Today, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation, with a multitude of changes unfolding in the global geopolitical landscape. Amid sluggish economic growth and the technological revolution, the global geopolitical environment has become increasingly unstable and uncertain. Meanwhile, waning U.S. hegemony and competing ideological currents are pushing global geopolitics toward greater disorder and fragmentation. In the face of this complex and evolving geopolitical landscape, it is of great strategic importance for us to steadfastly advance world peace and development through good governance in China and draw on China’s stability to anchor an uncertain world.

I

With once-in-a-century changes accelerating, the U.S. and a handful of other Western countries are recalibrating their strategies and vying fiercely over new power arrangements and rules. This is driving a profound reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape, ushering in a new phase marked by changes, disorder, and mounting turmoil.

As the international balance of power and geopolitical landscape are undergoing accelerated reconfiguration, the decline of the sole superpower and differentiation among major powers proceed in tandem

Due to widening development disparities across the world, the “one single superpower and several major powers” structure that took shape after the Cold War has undergone fundamental changes. This shift is the central trajectory of change in the global geopolitical landscape.

On the one hand, the U.S. is seeing a relative decline in its strength and international standing, and its unipolar hegemony is becoming increasingly untenable. Its share in world GDP has fallen from about 40% at its peak in the 1960s to around 26% in recent years. Domestic problems such as an imbalanced industrial structure and a massive federal debt burden are undermining the foundation of its national strength. Since the current U.S. administration took office, its approach has become more unilateral and confrontational, while its soft power has been severely eroded. Growing rifts within alliances have also diminished its agenda-setting ability.

On the other hand, multipolarity has intensified. Traditional powers and emerging economies pursue divergent development paths, resulting in a more diversified distribution of power. The European Union faces deepening economic and security challenges, and Japan remains strategically dependent on the U.S. Meanwhile, the Global South is undergoing exponential growth, with its share of world GDP exceeding 40%, making it an indispensable force in the multipolarization process. China has succeeded in sustaining its two miracles—rapid economic growth and lasting social stability, thus markedly increasing its international influence. Meanwhile, Russia has demonstrated strong strategic resilience on the strength of its energy sector despite Western sanctions. At the same time, emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and South Africa are actively expanding their strategic space, becoming important forces shaping global geopolitical dynamics.

A scene at the Global South Modernization Forum, November 21, 2025. The forum was held in Beijing under the theme “Working Together to Advance Modernization: A Shared Vision and the Path to Development.” PHOTO BY XINHUA REPORTER JIN LIANGKUAI

Geopolitical blocs are interacting in ways that reflect differentiation and realignment, with both strategic rivalry and strategic autonomy becoming more salient

Amid complex global geopolitical interactions, the U.S. and a handful of other Western countries continue to stoke bloc confrontation, even as many countries are inclined toward greater strategic autonomy. The coexistence of confrontation and autonomy has emerged as a prominent feature of the shifting global geopolitical landscape.

Confrontation is a hallmark of the current situation. To preserve their precarious hegemony and suppress the rise of emerging forces, certain Western countries have intensified competition with their non-Western counterparts, expanding this rivalry from traditional priority theaters such as Europe and the Asia-Pacific to other regions. As the Ukraine crisis drags on with no end in sight, transatlantic divergences are widening, while Europe-Russia confrontation becomes increasingly entrenched. The U.S. seeks to draw in regional allies to advance its so-called Indo-Pacific Strategy, heightening security risks in the Asia-Pacific. At the same time, it is adjusting its global strategy, exerting greater pressure on regions and countries such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa.

Autonomy also stands out as a prominent trend. In the face of hegemonic, domineering, and coercive behavior, more countries are undergoing a strategic awakening and seeking strategic autonomy. They feel a growing desire to break traditional bloc confrontation, advance multipolarity, and improve global governance.

As geopolitical rivalry intensifies, competition is heating up over strategic corridors and critical minerals

With the rapid technological advancement and shifts in the global resource and energy landscape, strategic chokepoints, key transit routes, and critical minerals have become hotspots of international competition. Geographical pivots and hubs have always been central to global geopolitics. The U.S. has set its sights on Greenland, a Danish territory with rich reserves of rare earths and other minerals and a strategic location on Arctic shipping routes. Washington has also targeted Darwin Port, a deep-water port in Australia widely seen as having potential military significance. Thus, we see the U.S. using both coercive and non-coercive measures to intensify its efforts to control them, even at the expense of other nations’ sovereignty.

Key transit routes are the lifelines of global trade and energy transport. The Red Sea crisis in 2023, which sent shockwaves through global industrial and supply chains, underscored the paramount importance of these strategic corridors. Recent maneuvers by the U.S., including its attempts to wrest control of the Panama Canal, signal a new phase of competition over key transit routes.

Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths are powering the development of clean energy, artificial intelligence, and other emerging industries. Securing access to these minerals is a prerequisite to advancing the current industrial revolution. A number of Western countries, including the U.S., persist in stoking geopolitical disputes over critical minerals, seeking to decouple their supply chains from China.

Geopolitical rivalry is substantially expanding, with new domains becoming the strategic frontiers that states are compelled to both contest and secure

New domains such as the deep sea, the polar regions, outer space, and cyberspace have a bearing on the strategic security of individual countries and influence the trajectory of global power dynamics. They are hence emerging as the new frontiers in international geopolitical rivalry.

Rich in mineral deposits, biological resources, and energy, the deep sea is drawing increasing strategic attention from many countries. As disputes flash over resource allocation due to breakthroughs in deep-sea mining technologies and a regulatory vacuum, some countries are eager to test the limits of international institutions. The contest among the U.S., Russia, Canada, and others over control of Arctic shipping routes remains intractable, and strategic competition in polar and deep-sea domains continues to intensify. Outer space has become a key arena for modern military and technological competition. The U.S. is striving to gain the initiative through its Starlink project, igniting a race for orbital resources and intensifying international rivalry over rights and interests in outer space. Meanwhile, cyberspace has emerged as a new stage for global geopolitical interactions, and cyberspace governance is closely tied to national development and security. More countries are increasing investment to enhance their offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, and the contest for dominance and control over cyberspace is growing ever more heated, reinforcing the trend toward geopoliticization of cyberspace.

II

The change in the global geopolitical landscape is part of an accelerating once-in-a-century transformation. At its root lies the intricate interplay of deep-seated factors such as the economy, technology, international order, and cultural and ideological trends.

Sluggish growth of the world economy is exacerbating international tensions

Over the past years, economic growth in the world has lingered at a low level. Although a slow recovery is underway, internal drivers remain weak. Imbalanced development is still prominent, and the combination of elevated risks and uncertainties is further complicating global geopolitics. Stunted growth has fueled rising strategic anxiety in many countries, intensifying competition over interests, development, and strategic spaces. As unilateralism and protectionism spread rapidly, various forms of confrontation are on the rise: development issues are increasingly politicized, economic activities instrumentalized, and trade policies weaponized. The global trust deficit is widening, the strategic environment is becoming more complex, and old problems remain unresolved while new ones continue to emerge.

Low growth has also exacerbated global inequality and instability. The development imbalance between developed and developing countries, the vulnerability of developing countries, class tensions within and fights over interests among developed countries—all these problems are on the rise. As these various conflicts accumulate, they generate many new sources of turbulence. Multilateralism and free trade are suffering severe setbacks. The security implications of economic and trade disputes are amplified. Different geopolitical conflicts are compounding one another. Finally, the global geopolitical landscape is undergoing tectonic transformation amid economic shocks.

The fast-advancing technological revolution is intensifying global competition

As breakthroughs are made at a faster pace in the latest round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and biotechnology are emerging in rapid succession, setting off a chain reaction of transformation. The role of technological innovation in bolstering and empowering national development and security has become more pronounced. It is profoundly changing the way people live and work and deeply impacting the future trajectories of all countries. Technological hegemony has long been at the heart of the U.S. global strategy, while also serving as the foundation for its broader hegemonic position. To safeguard its geopolitical interests, the U.S. has pursued monopoly, suppression, and technology blockade in the high-tech sector. This has accelerated the arrival of an era of techno-geopolitics.

Struggles over technological containment and counter-containment between technologically hegemonic countries and their allies on one side, and emerging tech powerhouses on the other, are expanding in scope and growing in intensity. In this context, the strategic value of critical information infrastructure and high-caliber talent in global geopolitics is becoming more prominent, sparking white-hot competition for both. The technological revolution has also brought about changes in the global power structure and social governance models. The ability to steer international narratives, set international rules, and maintain the governance initiative in the technological sector has become a new and important dimension in geopolitical competition.

The weakening and loss of grip of a hegemonic power are shaking the international order

For a long time, the evolution of the international order has been heavily influenced by the U.S. and its Western allies. Under the influence of the U.S. institutional hegemony, the existing international order largely represents the interests and preferences of a small number of Western countries including the U.S., while global geopolitical dynamics have been shaped in all dimensions by U.S. hegemonic policies.

Over recent years, the U.S. has been grappling with a number of intractable domestic problems such as wealth inequality, political polarization, and social fragmentation. This has prompted it to double down on unilateralist and protectionist policies driven by a zero-sum mindset, seeking to maximize its gains through an “America First” approach. By withdrawing from international organizations and abrogating international treaties, the U.S. seeks to abandon multilateral mechanisms and shirk global governance responsibilities. This transformation from a defender of the international order to a subverter of international rules has severely undermined the international system with the United Nations at its core and the international order underpinned by international law. This has not only damaged global governance mechanisms, but also disrupted the global governance process. Under the impact of these destructive U.S. policies, some countries have become more inward-looking and focused on self-preservation, while others seek to profit from the turmoil. Under these circumstances, the effect of international rules and norms has weakened, geopolitical interactions have plunged into deeper disarray, and reconfiguration of the global geopolitical landscape has accelerated.

Turmoil and upheaval in diverse cultural and ideological currents are intensifying international conflicts

The evolution of the global geopolitical landscape stems from shifts not only in the balance of power and international order but also in cultural and ideological currents. Today, these currents exhibit an unprecedented level of complexity and diversity. Neoliberalist ideas that Western states have championed for decades are clearly losing ground, anti-globalization sentiment continues to spread, and identity and culture-based conflicts within the U.S. and other Western countries are spilling into the international arena. At the same time, radical ideologies including populism, xenophobia, and extreme nationalism are converging across nations, regions, and sectors, coalescing into a powerful force that shapes real-world politics and catalyzes more geopolitical conflicts. The rise of populism and similar ideologies has heightened many countries’ concerns about their own security, breeding a stronger sense of strategic insecurity. This has, in turn, led to more isolationist and exclusionary foreign policies, severely curtailing the space for international dialogue and cooperation. All of this has thrown the conflictual and confrontational aspect of global geopolitical interactions into sharper relief.

III

The intricate, drastic shifts in the global geopolitical landscape are profoundly affecting China’s development and security. No matter how times change, China will always champion the common values of humanity, firmly defend international fairness and justice, and strive to build a bright and peaceful world where righteousness prevails. China will stay committed to the path of peaceful development, safeguard world peace and stability, and join hands with all nations to build a community with a shared future for humanity.

We will manage our own affairs well, and continue to advance high-quality development to mitigate the impact of uncertainties

Development is the key to solving all problems, and staying focused on handling domestic affairs well is crucial to China’s success in coping with all kinds of risks and challenges. In order to better adapt to shifts in the geopolitical landscape, we will accelerate efforts to create a new development dynamic, foster industrial and supply chains that are self-supporting, risk-resilient, stable, and smoothly functioning, and boost economic and industrial resilience to better cope with uncertainties in global geopolitics. We will also move faster to achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology, intensify efforts to make breakthroughs in core technologies, foster a vibrant research and innovation ecosystem, advance the green and low-carbon transition, and develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions. In addition, we will take measures to explore new paths for building an open world economy. These include promoting high-standard opening up, upholding the WTO-centered multilateral trading system, advancing high-quality cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, deepening interregional connectivity and cooperation, and more effectively integrating our economy into the global industrial, supply, and value chains.

We will reinforce national security—the cornerstone of any development, resolutely safeguarding both our development security and global strategic stability

In an evolving global geopolitical landscape, the importance of balancing development and security imperatives is self-evident. We should apply a holistic approach to national security in all our endeavors, prepare ourselves for worst-case scenarios and extreme situations, give top priority to safeguarding China’s political security, and prevent the transmission and proliferation of external geopolitical risks within our borders. We should resolutely oppose hegemonism and power politics in all their forms, firmly uphold the post-war international order, and unequivocally reject certain countries’ policy of putting themselves first and placing might before right.

On issues concerning China’s core interests, we must have the courage and skill to fight back. We should strengthen the mechanisms for countering foreign sanctions, interference, and long-arm jurisdiction, which will allow us to more effectively address the risks and challenges arising from individual countries’ geopolitical manipulation. We will practice genuine multilateralism, support the Global South in building strength and achieving revitalization through unity, and continue to consolidate and expand our global network of partnerships. All of this will promote the international political and economic order in a more democratic, just, and equitable direction.

We will advance the implementation of the four major global initiatives and champion a community with a shared future for humanity

Profound shifts in the global geopolitical landscape have raised questions of the times: “What is happening to the world?” and “What should we do?” Grounded in the vision of building a community with a shared future for humanity, China has answered by proposing the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, and the Global Governance Initiative. Under the strategic guidance of these four initiatives, China will contribute to the development of a new type of international relations, move beyond traditional geopolitical models, and reject the obsolete zero-sum mindset. We will support the modernization process in other countries through our own modernization drive while promoting deeper exchange and mutual learning among civilizations. At the same time, we will help improve the mechanisms for participating in global security governance, pursue dialogue rather than confrontation and inclusiveness rather than exclusion, and expand areas of converging interests. In doing so, we will work toward building an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world of lasting peace, universal security, and common prosperity.

Fu Xiaoqiang is President of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

(Originally appeared in Qiushi Journal, Chinese edition, No. 5, 2026)