Demographic trends in China behind proposed retirement delay

BEIJING -- Chinese lawmakers are deliberating a draft decision on gradually raising the statutory retirement age in the country. Behind the proposed reform are four major changes in China's population structure.

INCREASED LIFE EXPECTANCY

The average life expectancy in China has reached 78.6 years, the latest data showed.

According to projections, it is highly likely that the average life expectancy will surpass 80 years before 2030, said He Dan, head of the China Population and Development Research Center.

Currently, the retirement age in China for men is 60, while it is 55 for women cadres and 50 for women blue-collar workers. The arrangement was made in the 1950s, when the average life expectancy was less than 50 years, and it has remained unchanged since then.

"Delaying retirement is a comprehensive social reform aimed at meeting various needs of economic and social development. Adapting to the increased life expectancy is one of the important considerations," said Yuan Xin, vice president of the China Population Association and a professor at Nankai University.

MORE YEARS OF SCHOOLING

The average years of education for the working-age population rose from over 8 years in 1982 to 11.05 years in 2023. The average years of schooling for newly added workforce has topped 14 years.

"In the past, people started working at the age of around 20. In contrast, young people now graduate with a master's degree at the age of around 25 and with a doctorate at the age of nearly 30," said Zheng Bingwen, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Zheng believes that this delay in joining the workforce hinders the full utilization of human resources if the retirement age is not raised.

"If we appropriately raise the retirement age in line with the principle of voluntary participation with appropriate flexibility, while improving the employment promotion mechanism and focusing on addressing structural contradictions in the employment market, to effectively allocate and better utilize higher-level human resources, then new talent dividends will be unleashed and workers ready to delay retirement can earn more money," Zheng said.

DEEPENING POPULATION AGING

Official data showed that China has entered a moderately aging society. There were 297 million people aged 60 and above in the country at the end of 2023, accounting for 21.1 percent of the total population. The number of people aged 65 and above reached 217 million, taking up 15.4 percent of the total.

According to projections, the number of people aged 60 and above in China will surpass 400 million around 2035, accounting for over 30 percent of the total.

Although raising the retirement age cannot fully address the challenges of population aging, it can increase the labor force participation rate by providing an option to elderly individuals with willingness and ability to continue working, said Zhao Zhong, dean of School of Labor and Human Resources of Renmin University of China.

DECLINE IN WORKING-AGE POPULATION

China's working-age population, aged 16 to 59, was on the decline since 2012, which was a natural consequence of population aging. Nevertheless, the working-age legion retained an enormous size of approximately 860 million people at the end of 2023, taking up 61.3 percent of the total population.

China's human resources remain abundant, but to fully tap into the potential and ensure long-term sustainability, it is necessary to make policy adjustments to better leverage this advantage, Zheng noted.

Gradually raising the retirement age will allow elderly people ready to delay retirement to become an important part of the workforce in the future, thus mitigating the decrease in the working-age population, Zhao said.