The Fundamentals Underpinning China’s Long-Term Economic Growth Have Not Changed and Will Not Change

The basic features of China's economy—its abundant potential, robust resilience, ample room for maneuver, and a wide array of policy tools—remain unaltered, and the fundamentals underpinning China's long-term economic growth have not changed, nor will they.

In the current era, we have continued to build on the miracle of rapid economic growth following the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, particularly the advent of reform and opening up in 1978. China's gross domestic product (GDP) has more than doubled, soaring from 54 trillion yuan in 2012 to 120.5 trillion yuan in 2022. Per capita GDP has climbed from US$6,300 to US$12,700, placing China in the ranks of upper-middle-income nations. Turning to the growth rate, between 2013 and 2022, China posted an average annual growth of over 6% and even maintained an average annual growth of 4.5% during the three years of Covid-19. In both cases, it significantly surpassed the global averages for the same periods, placing it at the forefront of the world’s major economies.

The year 2023 marked the first year of economic recovery and development for China after three years of Covid-19 response. In spite of persistently sluggish global economic growth, China's economy achieved overall recovery and improvement. GDP in 2023 surpassed 126 trillion yuan, with economic growth reaching 5.2%. With China contributing one-third of the world's economic growth, it remains the greatest driver of global economic development.

To be more specific, the good in China's economy is evident not only in quantitative measures but, more significantly, in qualitative aspects. Consider the economic structure. The added value of high-tech manufacturing as a share of the total added value of large industrial enterprises has been rising steadily, climbing from 9.4% in 2012 to 15.5% in 2022. In the Global Innovation Index 2023, China ranked 12th in innovation capacity, making it the only middle-income economy in the top 30 and placing it among the world’s most innovative nations. In terms of coordinated development, the contribution of the central and western regions to China's GDP has increased from 21.3% and 19.6% in 2012 to 22.1% and 21.4% in 2022, respectively. Moreover, the income gap between urban and rural residents has continued to narrow. With respect to green development, China has maintained an economic growth rate of over 6% for the past decade while limiting the average annual increase in energy consumption to just 3%. This has enabled it to achieve one of the fastest reductions in energy consumption intensity worldwide. In terms of open development, China has become a major trading partner for over 140 countries and regions. It has led the world in the total volume of imports and exports for several consecutive years, and its levels of inbound and outbound foreign investment rank among the highest in the world. With regard to shared development, between 2012 and 2023, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents rose from 16,500 yuan to 39,200 yuan, essentially increasing in step with economic growth.

It is fair to say that the characteristics of this stage of high-quality development are becoming clear for all to see. The drivers of high-quality development are growing more robust, and high-quality development is now advancing at a more consistent pace. In the face of such historic economic achievements, theories talking down the Chinese economy, such as "peak China" and "China collapse," are groundless and easily debunked.

Editor: Li Xiaoqiong